I’ve been on a global warming binge lately. With every presidential candidate, on either side of the divide, committed to passing Kyoto in the good ol’ U.S. of A., and wishing to be an informed citizen, I have read everything I can get my hands on about the topic of global warming.
I present to you now the culmination of my research.
Warming, Where Art Thou?
1. The world is getting warmer. This much everybody agrees on. In the last 100 years, the world climate has increased in temperature by approx. 0.17 of a degree C every decade. This means global temperature increase in the future is 1.7 degrees by 2100 A.D.
2. This expectation is being found to be unrealistic. More realistic reports conclude that the temp. increase by 2100 will be far milder than that. In May of 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a report on global temperatures, comparing the temp. of the earth’s surface with the atmosphere, and found that Global average temp. increased
- 0.12 C per decade from 1958 to 1979,
- 0.11 C per decade in the tropics from 1958 to 1979
- 0.16 C per decade since 1979,
- 0.13 C per decade since 1979.
As a result, one of the leading scientists on the report concluded that the earth is not at all heating up rapidly (1).
3. There is no such thing as a “global average temperature,” (GAT). To get a GAT, you would have to measure the global mean surface temperature, which nobody can measure because it would require taking the temperature of every square inch of the planet all at the same time. This is not possible. We get our surface temperature measured in specific spots - wherever there happens to be a weather measuring station built. This cannot give us a reasonable “global” average of anything, only of the spots we’ve measured.
4. If the number of measuring stations drop, our calculations get all fuddily. It is interesting that a large number of measuring stations (about 6,000) were closed down right before the “global warming” was detected. Thousands of these stations were in the Soviet Union, and between 1989 and 1992 the Union shut down all of their measuring stations, most of which were in Siberia. Many of the other stations shut down were in cold regions. Looking at those statistics, we find that when all 6,000 stations shut down in the cold regions, we had an immediate global temp. spiked upwards by approx. 2.5 degrees. Any “global warming” calculation must take this into account.
5. Most of the temp. increase has been during the nighttime and winter season, when tilted toward the northern hemisphere. In fact, night and winter warming are twice that of summer and daylight warming. This means warmer nights and winters, increasing growing seasons and crop yield. This translates into more plants and therefore more CO2 released into the atmosphere.
6. The contribution of man made greenhouse gases to temperature increase is hardly proven. Take the major three greenhouse gases. 95% of Nitrus Oxcide is naturally produced - not man-produced. 82 % of methane in the atmosphere is naturally produced. And 97% of CO2 is naturally produced. All of human civilization produces about 3% of the carbon dioxide let into the atmosphere.
7. Of the three percent of CO2 produced, combustion emissions, that is, from cars and factories, only accounts for two-thirds of that three percent.
8. “The greenhouse effect must play some role. But those who are absolutely certain that the rise in temperatures is due solely to carbon dioxide have no scientific justification. It’s pure guesswork,” Henrik Svensmark, director, Centre for Sun-Climate Research, Danish National Space Center, Copenhagen Post, Oct. 4th, 2006.
9. “Global” warming isn’t global. The entirety of the Southern Hemisphere of our planet has been at a temperature lock since the 1970s. 0.05 degrees warmer and unchanged. If this rate continues as it does, it will have increased by a whole degree in the Souther Hemisphere by 2179 A.D. It is, of course, possible that the entire natural order of the southern hemisphere has been bribed by evil oil companies.
10. This means that while the average (measured) global temperature is increasing by itsy eeks and inches, it is not getting hotter everywhere. Trends are showing cooling down south of the equator.
11. Both the North and South Hemisphere have the same level of CO2, our theoretical blame for temperature increase globally. The UN’s climate panel, the IPCC, reported in 2001 that CO2 levels in both hemispheres have risen from 330 ppms (parts per million) to 360 ppms since 1970. So, if CO2 is to blame, why is it getting hotter northerly, but remaining constant southerly, with equal CO2?
12. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which has temp. records from 1985 to the present, there was a warming trend from 1895 to about 1940. The greatest rise in temperature was between 1910 and 1935 (before the significant usage of fossil fuels).
13. From 1940 to about 1975 the U.S. cooled off, a period which also happens to be the period of greatest growth in the usage of fossil fuels. Again, if CO2 were to blame for the warming trend, we should really see warming and not cooling during this period of heaviest usage.
14. From 1975 to 1998 we find more of what we should see if man was causing global warming. From 75 to 98, the earth warmed up. Coincidentally, however, the sun also spiked in this period and began producing more energy itself, which we must take into account and not simply dismiss.
15. From 1998, we begin to see the earth cooling slightly, despite the heavy fossil fuel usage by China and India in this period.
16. The rate of temp. increase between 1910 to 1935, when we were only using limited fossil fuels (which produce CO2, recall) is far higher than the rate of the warming trend between 1975 and 1998, even though the world was using far more fossil fuel during this time. (2)
17. Polar bears are not suffering for the areas of warming in the arctic, but are actually thriving. They are not starving, nor turning cannibal for lack of food. In fact, the bears are doing better in the warming areas of the arctic than the areas where the arctic is getting colder. (3) Dr. Mitchell Taylor, the leading Canadian polar bear biologist, even said, “They are not going extinct, or even appear to be affected at present,” (4), and notes that 11 of the 13 populations of polar bears are actually growing.
18. Sea levels are absolutely fine, well within normal 300-year oscillations, and showing almost no rise in the last decade, according to the world’s acknowledged leading expert in oceanic studies. (5)
19. The UN’s IPCC report on global warming predicts 14 to 45 <i>centi</i>meters of additional water from melted ice caps by 2100 A.D., not Al Gore’s or <i>The Day After Tomorrow</i>’s twenty foot swells.
20. Most of the ice on the caps are already in the water. Whether the ice is solid or melted, the water displacement is the same, just like if you drop an ice cube in a cup, the water would rise because of the displaced mass of the ice cube. But between the first moment of displacement, and when the ice cube is totally melted, there is no rise because the displacement has already occurred. Only ice on the land would displace the oceans, and once we remember the north pole is nothing but floating ice (no land under there), and most of the ice at the south pole is over water as well, we find the problem really does go away.
21. Antarctica is not warming (since 1903 it’s temperature has risen by less than a degree).
22. In 2006, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society published a paper co-written by leading international climatologists which concluded that there is absolutely no connection between greenhouse gases and hurricane behavior and that future changes in hurricane intensity will be small and mostly due to natural variability.
References
1. Ron Bailey, http://www.reason.com/rb/rb092206.shtml
2. For info on points 12-16, check out http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html
3. See Patrick J. Michaels, Meltdown (Cato Institute, 2004), pp. 95-96.
4. “Last Stand of our Wild Polar Bears,” Toronto Star, May 1st, 2006.
5. See N.A. Morner, “Estimating Future Sea Level Changes from Past Records,” Global and Planetary Change, 40: 2003, pp. 49-54.